Science at a Distance
Title Main The Scientifc Method
and
Predictions


Title Side

Brother Gregory
(Gregor Mendel) was a scientist and monk who lived and worked in a monastery in a place called Brno during the 19th century. You can read more about him and his adventures elsewhere on this web site.

One day his good friend, Brother Matthew, asked him if his feet hurt.
"Why?" replied Brother Gregory.
"Because every time your feet hurt, it rains tomorrow," he was told. "I'm going on a trip, and I want to know what the weather will be like."

Mendel was intrigued by the idea that the condition of his feet could possibly predict the weather. He was interested in meteorology, and had read somewhere that environmental factors, such as air pressure, air temperature, moisture in the atmosphere and even the kinds of clouds, could all be used to predict if it was going to rain tomorrow.

He also knew that many people, like Brother Matthew, believed that cows, sunsets, caterpillars and yes, even feet, could also predict the weather. Who was right? He decided to find out.

Mendel was alive and working in an era we now call the dawn of modern science. His work and research are good examples of how scientific investigations could, and should, be carried out. So we can learn a lot about science and what scientists do all day by watching him in action.

BG This type of investigation begins with a simple statement, such as, "my feet can predict the weather". In scientific terms, this is called a hypothesis.

For a scientist this hypothesis is just a beginning. Brother Gregory must now ask himself, "is this statement true; can my feet predict the weather?". How is he going to answer this question?

BG First he needs evidence; data that he can use to support his later claims. In the case of the "sore feet" hypothesis, this data comes in the form of qualitative observations. He notes down in his book every time he has sore feet and then notes down in his book what the weather is like the next day. Is it sunny, is it cloudy, or does it indeed rain?

Brother Gregory collects data in the form of these qualitative observations (he watches what happens). Then he checks to see if the hypothesis is correct by determining if "sore feet" were always followed by rain the next day.

Sore Feet

BG Repeat the Investigation and see if you get the same answer Brother Gregory obtained.

BG

Please start by typing your name in the box below.


Testing the "Sore Feet" Hypothesis
Weather

Number of observations :
Weather :
Number of times it rained :

Reset all values:

See Results

BG So, what did you find? Did it rain everytime Brother Greogry had sore feet? How often did it rain?

For a hypothesis to be correct it must accurately predict the future. Every time Brother Gregory had sore feet, it must rain tomorrow. If it did not then the hypothesis is not correct and must be abandoned as a method of predicting the weather.

So what now?

BG Brother Gregory has read that a number of different environmental factors, such as air pressure, air temperature, wind direction and humidity can influence what the weather will be like the next day.

His next hypothesis therefore is that "air pressure and temperature influence the weather". This is also testable by the same method used before. First, data in the form of qualitative observations must be collected.

Every day he notes the air pressure and the air temperature, and then records the next day's weather. From these results he hopes to find a connection between the air pressure and temperature, and when it will rain. See if you can recreate what Brother Gregory found, and see if you can find the conditions that best predict rain for tomorrow.


Testing the "Environmental" Hypothesis
Weather Conditions

Air pressure:
Low : Medium: High:
Temperature:
Hot : Warm: Cool:

Number of observations : Weather : Number of times it rained :

Reset all values:

See Results


BG So, what did you find?
Were there sets of conditions that predicted the weather better than Brother Gregory's sore feet?
If so, what were they?

Did any sets of conditions predict that it was going to rain 100% correctly?
How close did you get?

HINT: If you are getting confusing results, try each experiment or set of conditions for at least 20 times. The larger the number of tries, the better the results will be.

BG Scientific Method Congratulations!
You have just used the Scientific Method to carry out an investigation.

More about the Scientific Method

Science at a Distance
© 1998 Professor John Blamire